53 days on the record

Right Ray / Wrong Ray | Valle Crucis

Name: Valle Crucis, NC forecast accuracy scores
Creator: Dave's Sweater
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every forecast for Valle Crucis is a claim about tomorrow. This board grades each one we track against what the sky actually did, on the same rubric as Boone. Valle Crucis stands alone here: no blended average, no borrowed scores.

How Ray did ↓Valle Crucis's forecast

Valle Crucis Scoreboard

Every forecaster we track for Valle Crucis, ranked by average. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (marked ours) is graded right in the mix.

			Record
MET Norway	93.5	47	44R - 3M - 0W
Dave's Sweater Indexours	92.0	47	47R - 0M - 0W
Open-Meteo	88.5	47	43R - 4M - 0W
Google	86.1	45	43R - 2M - 0W
WeatherAPI	85.9	45	38R - 6M - 1W
Tomorrow.io	84.5	45	40R - 5M - 0W
OpenWeather	83.4	44	34R - 8M - 2W
Visual Crossing	81.5	45	34R - 11M - 0W
National Weather Service	78.0	47	28R - 17M - 2W
Ray's Weather	60.4	53	2R - 29M - 22W

MET Norway93.5
44R - 3M - 0W | 47 days
Dave's Sweater Indexours92.0
47R - 0M - 0W | 47 days
Open-Meteo88.5
43R - 4M - 0W | 47 days
Google86.1
43R - 2M - 0W | 45 days
WeatherAPI85.9
38R - 6M - 1W | 45 days
Tomorrow.io84.5
40R - 5M - 0W | 45 days
OpenWeather83.4
34R - 8M - 2W | 44 days
Visual Crossing81.5
34R - 11M - 0W | 45 days
National Weather Service78.0
28R - 17M - 2W | 47 days
Ray's Weather60.4
2R - 29M - 22W | 53 days

R: Right, 75+
M: Meh, 60 to 74
W: Wrong, under 60
Trend: 7-day rolling average

Latest scored day | September 9, 2026

Valle Crucis's forecasts, graded against what the sky actually did. The math is under each score.

What actually happened

Hi: 80.9° / Lo: 59.1° | Wind: 8.2 mph | Rain: 0"

Overcast

MET Norwayday's bestFree

97.9/100

Predicted hi / lo

79.2° / 58.3°

Wind

8.1 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.7°

79.2° → 80.9°

27.9/30

Low temp | ±0.8°

58.3° → 59.1°

30/30

Wind | ±0.1 mph

8.1 mph → 8.2 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Open-MeteoFree

95.8/100

Predicted hi / lo

79.5° / 57.1°

Wind

6.5 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.4°

79.5° → 80.9°

28.8/30

Low temp | ±2°

57.1° → 59.1°

27/30

Wind | ±1.7 mph

6.5 mph → 8.2 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Tomorrow.ioFree

92.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.6° / 56.9°

Wind

6.4 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.3°

78.6° → 80.9°

26.1/30

Low temp | ±2.2°

56.9° → 59.1°

26.4/30

Wind | ±1.8 mph

6.4 mph → 8.2 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

WeatherAPIFree

89.1/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.6° / 56.7°

Wind

3.8 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.3°

78.6° → 80.9°

26.1/30

Low temp | ±2.4°

56.7° → 59.1°

25.8/30

Wind | ±4.4 mph

3.8 mph → 8.2 mph

17.2/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

GoogleFree

84.3/100

Predicted hi / lo

77.8° / 55.1°

Wind

5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±3.1°

77.8° → 80.9°

23.7/30

Low temp | ±4°

55.1° → 59.1°

21/30

Wind | ±3.2 mph

5 mph → 8.2 mph

19.6/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

National Weather ServiceFree

83.9/100

Predicted hi / lo

78° / 59°

Wind

0 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.9°

78° → 80.9°

24.3/30

Low temp | ±0.1°

59° → 59.1°

30/30

Wind | ±8.2 mph

0 mph → 8.2 mph

9.6/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Ray's WeatherPaid

80.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

81° / 59°

Wind

—

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.1°

81° → 80.9°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.1°

59° → 59.1°

30/30

Wind | not published

— → 8.2 mph

—

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Visual CrossingFree

78.3/100

Predicted hi / lo

75.8° / 55.3°

Wind

4.7 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±5.1°

75.8° → 80.9°

17.7/30

Low temp | ±3.8°

55.3° → 59.1°

21.6/30

Wind | ±3.5 mph

4.7 mph → 8.2 mph

19/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

OpenWeatherday's worstFree

68.9/100

Predicted hi / lo

73.5° / 62.8°

Wind

3.3 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±7.4°

73.5° → 80.9°

10.8/30

Low temp | ±3.7°

62.8° → 59.1°

21.9/30

Wind | ±4.9 mph

3.3 mph → 8.2 mph

16.2/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Each forecast is scored out of 100 across four fields, by closeness to the actual recorded conditions. Those fields are high temp (30), low temp (30), wind (20, scored as a range when the source gives one) and precipitation (20, form and amount graded together, snow-aware). Same rubric for every town.

Ray's Weather publishes a per-town high, low and sky icon, so his town boards are graded on those. The icon is read as his precipitation call (a dry icon scores as a no-rain forecast, a rain or storm icon as rain). His wind text is one identical regional string across every town, so wind stays an honest forfeit here rather than a stamped guess. See the methodology for the icon mapping.

Full methodology | Boone's board

What they're predicting for Valle Crucis

Here's what each forecast says for Thursday, September 10: Logged before the actuals exist. Come back once the day's in to see who was right.

Source	High	Low	Wind	Precip
Open-Meteo	82°	60°	10 mph	No precip
Ray's Weather	84°	59°	—	No precip
NWS	81°	62°	7 mph	No precip
Met.no	80°	73°	12 mph	No precip
OpenWeatherMap	81°	72°	8 mph	No precip
WeatherAPI	82°	62°	11 mph	No precip
Visual Crossing	78°	59°	10 mph	Rain
Tomorrow.io	81°	60°	11 mph	No precip
Google Weather	81°	59°	10 mph	Rain

Open-Meteo

Hi / Lo: 82° / 60°
Wind: 10 mph
Precip: No precip

Ray's Weather

Hi / Lo: 84° / 59°
Wind: —
Precip: No precip

NWS

Hi / Lo: 81° / 62°
Wind: 7 mph
Precip: No precip

Met.no

Hi / Lo: 80° / 73°
Wind: 12 mph
Precip: No precip

OpenWeatherMap

Hi / Lo: 81° / 72°
Wind: 8 mph
Precip: No precip

WeatherAPI

Hi / Lo: 82° / 62°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: No precip

Visual Crossing

Hi / Lo: 78° / 59°
Wind: 10 mph
Precip: Rain

Tomorrow.io

Hi / Lo: 81° / 60°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: No precip

Google Weather

Hi / Lo: 81° / 59°
Wind: 10 mph
Precip: Rain