Skip to content
Dave's Sweater
Watauga County | 2,677 ft

Valle Crucis weather

A real Valle Crucis forecast, not a stamped regional copy. Every source we track, pulled at Valle Crucis's own coordinates, blended into one consensus and graded daily against Valle Crucis's own actuals.

Dave's Sweater Index | Thu, Sep 10
High 81° | Low 63° | Rain | 5% chance
The average of 8 independent (and free) forecasters | Chance is the median of the 7 that publish one
The forecast belongs to everybody. The sweater call is yours.

Sweater Weather Index

Wearing a sweater would be a cry for help.

Layers to consider: 0

The 5-day | Valle Crucis

Thu
Sep 10
Dry, warm
Wind: 10 mph
81° 63°
Rain: 5%
Fri
Sep 11
Scattered showers, warm
Wind: 6 mph
81° 64°
Rain: 56%
Sat
Sep 12
Showers likely, mild
Wind: 6 mph
74° 63°
Rain: 89%
Sun
Sep 13
Scattered showers, mild
Wind: 6 mph
77° 63°
Rain: 54%
Mon
Sep 14
A few showers, warm
Wind: 4 mph
80° 63°
Rain: 35%

See the scoreboard|How we grade

What they're predicting for Valle Crucis

Here's what each forecast says for Thursday, September 10: Logged before the actuals exist. Come back once the day's in to see who was right.

Open-Meteo
Hi / Lo
82° / 60°
Wind
10 mph
Precip
No precip
Ray's Weather
Hi / Lo
84° / 59°
Wind
Precip
No precip
NWS
Hi / Lo
81° / 62°
Wind
7 mph
Precip
No precip
Met.no
Hi / Lo
80° / 73°
Wind
12 mph
Precip
No precip
OpenWeatherMap
Hi / Lo
81° / 72°
Wind
8 mph
Precip
No precip
WeatherAPI
Hi / Lo
82° / 62°
Wind
11 mph
Precip
No precip
Visual Crossing
Hi / Lo
78° / 59°
Wind
10 mph
Precip
Rain
Tomorrow.io
Hi / Lo
81° / 60°
Wind
11 mph
Precip
No precip
Google Weather
Hi / Lo
81° / 59°
Wind
10 mph
Precip
Rain

See how each of these did once the day is in the books: Valle Crucis's accuracy board | How we grade

Fall color

When Valle Crucis peaks

October 16–26

Predicted peak window, fall 2026

Valle Crucis sits at 2,677 feet, the mid band, where most of the High Country's towns sit and where the season runs longest. Peak color reaches 5,000 feet around October 6, 2026, then slides about 6.5 days later for every 1,000 feet it descends, which puts Valle Crucis about 15 days behind the 5,000 foot ridges.

That window is elevation and climatology alone right now. The September temperature term that nudges peak earlier or later stays switched off until this fall's numbers accrue, and these dates will move when it comes on. We would rather show you the gap than paper over it.

A peak window is a claim about October, so it gets graded like every other forecast here. Once the leaves actually turn we score these dates against the published fall color reports and the result goes on the board, flattering or not. This is the model's first live fall, so read the window as a first attempt with its work shown, not a settled number. Every town's window, and how the model gets a date.

2,500 to 3,500 feet | Model leaf-v0-draft