Tracked daily | 233 days on the record

Right Ray / Wrong Ray

Name: Boone, NC forecast accuracy scores
Creator: Dave's Sweater
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every forecast is a claim about tomorrow. This scoreboard grades every one we track, free and paid alike, against what the sky actually did. Same rubric for everybody.

How Ray did ↓How we score it

The long read

Is Ray's Weather Accurate? 118 Days Scored

Monthly report card

Ray's Weather Report Card: June 2026

Our forecast

Dave's Sweater Index

#1 of 11

Our own forecast, built from the free forecasters below and graded by the exact same rubric as every one of them. It is not a plain average. The rules that combine them are published, and they are why it outscores its own members. No résumé, no paywall.

95.9

Season avg / 100

124R

Graded Right

124

Days scored

Latest scored day:98.5/100from 8 forecasters

Season Scoreboard

Every forecaster we track, ranked by season average. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (marked ours) is graded right in the mix. The order is merit-based.

			Record
Dave's Sweater Indexours	95.9	124	124R - 0M - 0W
MET Norway	94.8	124	120R - 4M - 0W
Google	93.4	124	123R - 1M - 0W
Visual Crossing	90.6	124	118R - 6M - 0W
Open-Meteo	90.2	599	582R - 15M - 2W
Tomorrow.io	89.5	124	120R - 4M - 0W
Apple Weather	88.9	233	219R - 11M - 3W
WeatherAPI	86.8	124	113R - 9M - 2W
OpenWeather	86.7	123	107R - 13M - 3W
National Weather Service	83.6	124	102R - 22M - 0W
Ray's Weather	71.4	233	105R - 90M - 38W

Dave's Sweater Indexours95.9
124R - 0M - 0W | 124 days
MET Norway94.8
120R - 4M - 0W | 124 days
Google93.4
123R - 1M - 0W | 124 days
Visual Crossing90.6
118R - 6M - 0W | 124 days
Open-Meteo90.2
582R - 15M - 2W | 599 days
Tomorrow.io89.5
120R - 4M - 0W | 124 days
Apple Weather88.9
219R - 11M - 3W | 233 days
WeatherAPI86.8
113R - 9M - 2W | 124 days
OpenWeather86.7
107R - 13M - 3W | 123 days
National Weather Service83.6
102R - 22M - 0W | 124 days
Ray's Weather71.4
105R - 90M - 38W | 233 days

R: Right, 75+
M: Meh, 60 to 74
W: Wrong, under 60
Trend: 7-day rolling average

How far out can you trust a forecast?

The same 100-point grading, applied to the forecast each source published up to five days ahead. The free forecasts win at every horizon, and the gap widens at days 3 and 4: Ray's extended days publish fewer scoreable fields, and under the published rules a blank earns nothing. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (the bold white line) stays near the top clear out to day five, because a consensus barely fades when no single source has to carry it.

Tap a line or a name to isolate it.

Lines stop where the data does. Not every source publishes five days out, samples thin past day 3, and a lead is only charted once it holds at least 10 scored days. Ray's single day-5 row sits out until it accumulates.

Average accuracy score by forecast lead time
Source	Same day	1 days out	2 days out	3 days out	4 days out	5 days out
Dave's Sweater Index	95.85	95.31	94.29	94.31	92.53	90.03
MET Norway	94.8	94.34	93.12	89.24	87.83	86.23
Google	93.44	94.27	92.78	—	—	—
Visual Crossing	90.6	93.73	93.56	90.66	89.29	87.64
Open-Meteo	90.18	86.41	86.93	85.28	83.15	82.02
Tomorrow.io	89.55	88.69	92.34	91.77	88.92	87.25
WeatherAPI	86.76	85.61	84.4	—	—	—
OpenWeather	86.74	85.81	86.72	85.99	83.86	71.94
National Weather Service	83.59	82.62	82.05	81.42	80.09	77.08
Ray's Weather	71.44	65.47	64.87	52.26	52.3	—

How lead-time scoring works

Latest scored day | October 25, 2026

Yesterday's forecasts, graded against what the sky actually did. The math is under each score.

What actually happened

Hi: 57° / Lo: 37.4° | Wind: 5.5 mph | Rain: 0"

Overcast

Googleday's bestFree

99.7/100

Predicted hi / lo

57.2° / 38.5°

Wind

5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.2°

57.2° → 57°

30/30

Low temp | ±1.1°

38.5° → 37.4°

29.7/30

Wind | ±0.5 mph

5 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

WeatherAPIFree

97.6/100

Predicted hi / lo

58.3° / 35.9°

Wind

5.1 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.3°

58.3° → 57°

29.1/30

Low temp | ±1.5°

35.9° → 37.4°

28.5/30

Wind | ±0.4 mph

5.1 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

National Weather ServiceFree

95.8/100

Predicted hi / lo

59° / 36°

Wind

6 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2°

59° → 57°

27/30

Low temp | ±1.4°

36° → 37.4°

28.8/30

Wind | ±0.5 mph

6 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

MET NorwayFree

95.2/100

Predicted hi / lo

54.5° / 36.3°

Wind

6 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.5°

54.5° → 57°

25.5/30

Low temp | ±1.1°

36.3° → 37.4°

29.7/30

Wind | ±0.5 mph

6 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Tomorrow.ioFree

94.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

54° / 38.4°

Wind

6.9 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±3°

54° → 57°

24/30

Low temp | ±1°

38.4° → 37.4°

30/30

Wind | ±1.4 mph

6.9 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Apple WeatherFree

92.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

54.4° / 35.5°

Wind

7.1 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.6°

54.4° → 57°

25.2/30

Low temp | ±1.9°

35.5° → 37.4°

27.3/30

Wind | ±1.6 mph

7.1 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Open-MeteoFree

92.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

54.4° / 35.5°

Wind

7.1 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.6°

54.4° → 57°

25.2/30

Low temp | ±1.9°

35.5° → 37.4°

27.3/30

Wind | ±1.6 mph

7.1 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Visual CrossingFree

91.6/100

Predicted hi / lo

56.6° / 33.6°

Wind

5.8 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.4°

56.6° → 57°

30/30

Low temp | ±3.8°

33.6° → 37.4°

21.6/30

Wind | ±0.3 mph

5.8 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

OpenWeatherFree

90.7/100

Predicted hi / lo

56.2° / 33.3°

Wind

5.4 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.8°

56.2° → 57°

30/30

Low temp | ±4.1°

33.3° → 37.4°

20.7/30

Wind | ±0.1 mph

5.4 mph → 5.5 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Ray's Weatherday's worstPaid

89.8/100

Predicted hi / lo

59° / 35°

Wind

4 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2°

59° → 57°

27/30

Low temp | ±2.4°

35° → 37.4°

25.8/30

Wind | ±1.5 mph

1-7 → 5.5 mph

17/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Every forecast is scored out of 100 on temperature, wind, and precipitation, against what actually happened. Full methodology

What they're predicting now

Here's what each forecast says for Monday, October 26: Logged before the actuals exist. Come back once the day's in to see who was right.

Source	High	Low	Wind	Precip
Dave's Sweater Index	64°	37°	5 mph	No precip
Open-Meteo	65°	39°	8 mph	No precip
Apple Weather	65°	39°	8 mph	No precip
Ray's Weather	66°	39°	1–7 mph	No precip
NWS	65°	43°	2 mph	No precip
Met.no	63°	40°	5 mph	No precip
OpenWeatherMap	62°	39°	5 mph	No precip
WeatherAPI	65°	39°	5 mph	No precip
Visual Crossing	64°	31°	4 mph	No precip
Tomorrow.io	64°	37°	6 mph	No precip
Google Weather	65°	31°	4 mph	Rain

Dave's Sweater Index

Hi / Lo: 64° / 37°
Wind: 5 mph
Precip: No precip

Open-Meteo

Hi / Lo: 65° / 39°
Wind: 8 mph
Precip: No precip

Apple Weather

Hi / Lo: 65° / 39°
Wind: 8 mph
Precip: No precip

Ray's Weather

Hi / Lo: 66° / 39°
Wind: 1–7 mph
Precip: No precip

NWS

Hi / Lo: 65° / 43°
Wind: 2 mph
Precip: No precip

Met.no

Hi / Lo: 63° / 40°
Wind: 5 mph
Precip: No precip

OpenWeatherMap

Hi / Lo: 62° / 39°
Wind: 5 mph
Precip: No precip

WeatherAPI

Hi / Lo: 65° / 39°
Wind: 5 mph
Precip: No precip

Visual Crossing

Hi / Lo: 64° / 31°
Wind: 4 mph
Precip: No precip

Tomorrow.io

Hi / Lo: 64° / 37°
Wind: 6 mph
Precip: No precip

Google Weather

Hi / Lo: 65° / 31°
Wind: 4 mph
Precip: Rain