Tracked daily | 187 days on the record

Right Ray / Wrong Ray

Name: Boone, NC forecast accuracy scores
Creator: Dave's Sweater
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every forecast is a claim about tomorrow. This scoreboard grades every one we track, free and paid alike, against what the sky actually did. Same rubric for everybody.

How Ray did ↓How we score it

The long read

Is Ray's Weather Accurate? 118 Days Scored

Monthly report card

Ray's Weather Report Card: June 2026

Our forecast

Dave's Sweater Index

#1 of 11

Our own forecast, built from the free forecasters below and graded by the exact same rubric as every one of them. It is not a plain average. The rules that combine them are published, and they are why it outscores its own members. No résumé, no paywall.

96.0

Season avg / 100

78R

Graded Right

Days scored

Latest scored day:100.0/100from 8 forecasters

Season Scoreboard

Every forecaster we track, ranked by season average. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (marked ours) is graded right in the mix. The order is merit-based.

			Record
Dave's Sweater Indexours	96.0	78	78R - 0M - 0W
MET Norway	94.8	78	76R - 2M - 0W
Google	94.6	78	78R - 0M - 0W
Visual Crossing	91.2	78	75R - 3M - 0W
Open-Meteo	89.9	553	536R - 15M - 2W
Tomorrow.io	89.3	78	75R - 3M - 0W
Apple Weather	87.8	187	173R - 11M - 3W
OpenWeather	85.5	77	65R - 10M - 2W
WeatherAPI	85.4	78	69R - 8M - 1W
National Weather Service	82.4	78	62R - 16M - 0W
Ray's Weather	70.4	187	79R - 74M - 34W

Dave's Sweater Indexours96.0
78R - 0M - 0W | 78 days
MET Norway94.8
76R - 2M - 0W | 78 days
Google94.6
78R - 0M - 0W | 78 days
Visual Crossing91.2
75R - 3M - 0W | 78 days
Open-Meteo89.9
536R - 15M - 2W | 553 days
Tomorrow.io89.3
75R - 3M - 0W | 78 days
Apple Weather87.8
173R - 11M - 3W | 187 days
OpenWeather85.5
65R - 10M - 2W | 77 days
WeatherAPI85.4
69R - 8M - 1W | 78 days
National Weather Service82.4
62R - 16M - 0W | 78 days
Ray's Weather70.4
79R - 74M - 34W | 187 days

R: Right, 75+
M: Meh, 60 to 74
W: Wrong, under 60
Trend: 7-day rolling average

How far out can you trust a forecast?

The same 100-point grading, applied to the forecast each source published up to five days ahead. The free forecasts win at every horizon, and the gap widens at days 3 and 4: Ray's extended days publish fewer scoreable fields, and under the published rules a blank earns nothing. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (the bold white line) stays near the top clear out to day five, because a consensus barely fades when no single source has to carry it.

Tap a line or a name to isolate it.

Lines stop where the data does. Not every source publishes five days out, samples thin past day 3, and a lead is only charted once it holds at least 10 scored days. Ray's single day-5 row sits out until it accumulates.

Average accuracy score by forecast lead time
Source	Same day	1 days out	2 days out	3 days out	4 days out	5 days out
Dave's Sweater Index	96.02	95.2	93.98	94.66	93.55	92.25
MET Norway	94.85	94.9	93.4	89.48	88.39	87.69
Google	94.62	94.94	93.89	—	—	—
Visual Crossing	91.15	92.75	93.18	89.92	89.56	88.32
Open-Meteo	89.95	85.5	86.15	84.52	82.73	81.33
Tomorrow.io	89.33	87.92	92.42	92.43	89.66	88.72
OpenWeather	85.5	85.02	85.63	85.1	82.99	74.01
WeatherAPI	85.44	84.17	82.36	—	—	—
National Weather Service	82.4	82.09	81.75	81.28	80.55	78.57
Ray's Weather	70.37	68.38	67.97	55.28	55.7	—

How lead-time scoring works

Latest scored day | September 9, 2026

Yesterday's forecasts, graded against what the sky actually did. The math is under each score.

What actually happened

Hi: 75.8° / Lo: 56.6° | Wind: 5.8 mph | Rain: 0.031"

Light drizzle

MET Norwayday's bestFree

100.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

76.3° / 57.2°

Wind

8.1 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.5°

76.3° → 75.8°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.6°

57.2° → 56.6°

30/30

Wind | ±2.3 mph

8.1 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0.03" → 0.03"

20/20

GoogleFree

98.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

76.9° / 55.2°

Wind

5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.1°

76.9° → 75.8°

29.7/30

Low temp | ±1.4°

55.2° → 56.6°

28.8/30

Wind | ±0.8 mph

5 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

20/20

Apple WeatherFree

96.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

76.1° / 56.7°

Wind

6.4 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.3°

76.1° → 75.8°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.1°

56.7° → 56.6°

30/30

Wind | ±0.6 mph

6.4 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

Open-MeteoFree

96.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

76.1° / 56.7°

Wind

6.4 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.3°

76.1° → 75.8°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.1°

56.7° → 56.6°

30/30

Wind | ±0.6 mph

6.4 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

Tomorrow.ioFree

96.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

76.1° / 56.2°

Wind

7.2 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.3°

76.1° → 75.8°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.4°

56.2° → 56.6°

30/30

Wind | ±1.4 mph

7.2 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

Visual CrossingFree

92.1/100

Predicted hi / lo

76° / 54.3°

Wind

4.6 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.2°

76° → 75.8°

30/30

Low temp | ±2.3°

54.3° → 56.6°

26.1/30

Wind | ±1.2 mph

4.6 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

WeatherAPIFree

90.6/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.6° / 56.7°

Wind

3.8 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.8°

78.6° → 75.8°

24.6/30

Low temp | ±0.1°

56.7° → 56.6°

30/30

Wind | ±2 mph

3.8 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

National Weather ServiceFree

88.2/100

Predicted hi / lo

77° / 60°

Wind

5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.2°

77° → 75.8°

29.4/30

Low temp | ±3.4°

60° → 56.6°

22.8/30

Wind | ±0.8 mph

5 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

Ray's WeatherPaid

82.8/100

Predicted hi / lo

79° / 59°

Wind

7.5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±3.2°

79° → 75.8°

23.4/30

Low temp | ±2.4°

59° → 56.6°

25.8/30

Wind | ±1.7 mph

5-10 → 5.8 mph

17.6/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

OpenWeatherday's worstFree

82.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

73° / 60.3°

Wind

4 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.8°

73° → 75.8°

24.6/30

Low temp | ±3.7°

60.3° → 56.6°

21.9/30

Wind | ±1.8 mph

4 mph → 5.8 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.03"

0" → 0.03"

16/20

Every forecast is scored out of 100 on temperature, wind, and precipitation, against what actually happened. Full methodology

What they're predicting now

Here's what each forecast says for Thursday, September 10: Logged before the actuals exist. Come back once the day's in to see who was right.

Source	High	Low	Wind	Precip
Dave's Sweater Index	79°	61°	11 mph	Rain
Open-Meteo	79°	63°	15 mph	No precip
Apple Weather	79°	63°	15 mph	No precip
Ray's Weather	82°	62°	5–15 mph	No precip
NWS	79°	62°	6 mph	No precip
Met.no	78°	60°	13 mph	No precip
OpenWeatherMap	80°	60°	7 mph	No precip
WeatherAPI	82°	62°	11 mph	No precip
Visual Crossing	79°	59°	14 mph	Rain
Tomorrow.io	78°	62°	13 mph	No precip
Google Weather	81°	60°	11 mph	Rain

Dave's Sweater Index

Hi / Lo: 79° / 61°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: Rain

Open-Meteo

Hi / Lo: 79° / 63°
Wind: 15 mph
Precip: No precip

Apple Weather

Hi / Lo: 79° / 63°
Wind: 15 mph
Precip: No precip

Ray's Weather

Hi / Lo: 82° / 62°
Wind: 5–15 mph
Precip: No precip

NWS

Hi / Lo: 79° / 62°
Wind: 6 mph
Precip: No precip

Met.no

Hi / Lo: 78° / 60°
Wind: 13 mph
Precip: No precip

OpenWeatherMap

Hi / Lo: 80° / 60°
Wind: 7 mph
Precip: No precip

WeatherAPI

Hi / Lo: 82° / 62°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: No precip

Visual Crossing

Hi / Lo: 79° / 59°
Wind: 14 mph
Precip: Rain

Tomorrow.io

Hi / Lo: 78° / 62°
Wind: 13 mph
Precip: No precip

Google Weather

Hi / Lo: 81° / 60°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: Rain