53 days on the record

Right Ray / Wrong Ray | Vilas

Name: Vilas, NC forecast accuracy scores
Creator: Dave's Sweater
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every forecast for Vilas is a claim about tomorrow. This board grades each one we track against what the sky actually did, on the same rubric as Boone. Vilas stands alone here: no blended average, no borrowed scores.

How Ray did ↓Vilas's forecast

Vilas Scoreboard

Every forecaster we track for Vilas, ranked by average. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (marked ours) is graded right in the mix.

			Record
Dave's Sweater Indexours	93.8	47	47R - 0M - 0W
MET Norway	93.5	47	44R - 3M - 0W
Open-Meteo	89.2	47	44R - 3M - 0W
Google	88.1	45	44R - 1M - 0W
Tomorrow.io	87.3	45	42R - 3M - 0W
WeatherAPI	86.7	45	40R - 4M - 1W
Visual Crossing	86.6	45	42R - 3M - 0W
OpenWeather	83.7	44	34R - 8M - 2W
National Weather Service	78.5	47	28R - 17M - 2W
Ray's Weather	62.9	53	3R - 34M - 16W

Dave's Sweater Indexours93.8
47R - 0M - 0W | 47 days
MET Norway93.5
44R - 3M - 0W | 47 days
Open-Meteo89.2
44R - 3M - 0W | 47 days
Google88.1
44R - 1M - 0W | 45 days
Tomorrow.io87.3
42R - 3M - 0W | 45 days
WeatherAPI86.7
40R - 4M - 1W | 45 days
Visual Crossing86.6
42R - 3M - 0W | 45 days
OpenWeather83.7
34R - 8M - 2W | 44 days
National Weather Service78.5
28R - 17M - 2W | 47 days
Ray's Weather62.9
3R - 34M - 16W | 53 days

R: Right, 75+
M: Meh, 60 to 74
W: Wrong, under 60
Trend: 7-day rolling average

Latest scored day | September 9, 2026

Vilas's forecasts, graded against what the sky actually did. The math is under each score.

What actually happened

Hi: 80.5° / Lo: 58.7° | Wind: 8.2 mph | Rain: 0"

Overcast

Open-Meteoday's bestFree

100.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

80.1° / 58.5°

Wind

6.3 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.4°

80.1° → 80.5°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.2°

58.5° → 58.7°

30/30

Wind | ±1.9 mph

6.3 mph → 8.2 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Tomorrow.ioFree

98.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

79° / 58.2°

Wind

6.3 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.5°

79° → 80.5°

28.5/30

Low temp | ±0.5°

58.2° → 58.7°

30/30

Wind | ±1.9 mph

6.3 mph → 8.2 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

MET NorwayFree

97.9/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.8° / 57.9°

Wind

8.1 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.7°

78.8° → 80.5°

27.9/30

Low temp | ±0.8°

57.9° → 58.7°

30/30

Wind | ±0.1 mph

8.1 mph → 8.2 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

WeatherAPIFree

91.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.6° / 56.7°

Wind

3.8 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.9°

78.6° → 80.5°

27.3/30

Low temp | ±2°

56.7° → 58.7°

27/30

Wind | ±4.4 mph

3.8 mph → 8.2 mph

17.2/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

GoogleFree

89.2/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.1° / 55.5°

Wind

6 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.4°

78.1° → 80.5°

25.8/30

Low temp | ±3.2°

55.5° → 58.7°

23.4/30

Wind | ±2.2 mph

6 mph → 8.2 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

National Weather ServiceFree

84.2/100

Predicted hi / lo

78° / 60°

Wind

0 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.5°

78° → 80.5°

25.5/30

Low temp | ±1.3°

60° → 58.7°

29.1/30

Wind | ±8.2 mph

0 mph → 8.2 mph

9.6/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Visual CrossingFree

83.7/100

Predicted hi / lo

76.8° / 55.3°

Wind

4.7 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±3.7°

76.8° → 80.5°

21.9/30

Low temp | ±3.4°

55.3° → 58.7°

22.8/30

Wind | ±3.5 mph

4.7 mph → 8.2 mph

19/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Ray's WeatherPaid

80.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

81° / 58°

Wind

—

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.5°

81° → 80.5°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.7°

58° → 58.7°

30/30

Wind | not published

— → 8.2 mph

—

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

OpenWeatherday's worstFree

68.1/100

Predicted hi / lo

73.6° / 63.1°

Wind

3.2 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±6.9°

73.6° → 80.5°

12.3/30

Low temp | ±4.4°

63.1° → 58.7°

19.8/30

Wind | ±5 mph

3.2 mph → 8.2 mph

16/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Each forecast is scored out of 100 across four fields, by closeness to the actual recorded conditions. Those fields are high temp (30), low temp (30), wind (20, scored as a range when the source gives one) and precipitation (20, form and amount graded together, snow-aware). Same rubric for every town.

Ray's Weather publishes a per-town high, low and sky icon, so his town boards are graded on those. The icon is read as his precipitation call (a dry icon scores as a no-rain forecast, a rain or storm icon as rain). His wind text is one identical regional string across every town, so wind stays an honest forfeit here rather than a stamped guess. See the methodology for the icon mapping.

Full methodology | Boone's board

What they're predicting for Vilas

Here's what each forecast says for Thursday, September 10: Logged before the actuals exist. Come back once the day's in to see who was right.

Source	High	Low	Wind	Precip
Open-Meteo	82°	63°	10 mph	No precip
Ray's Weather	83°	60°	—	No precip
NWS	80°	62°	8 mph	No precip
Met.no	80°	73°	12 mph	No precip
OpenWeatherMap	81°	72°	8 mph	No precip
WeatherAPI	82°	62°	11 mph	No precip
Visual Crossing	79°	59°	11 mph	Rain
Tomorrow.io	81°	63°	11 mph	No precip
Google Weather	80°	60°	11 mph	Rain

Open-Meteo

Hi / Lo: 82° / 63°
Wind: 10 mph
Precip: No precip

Ray's Weather

Hi / Lo: 83° / 60°
Wind: —
Precip: No precip

NWS

Hi / Lo: 80° / 62°
Wind: 8 mph
Precip: No precip

Met.no

Hi / Lo: 80° / 73°
Wind: 12 mph
Precip: No precip

OpenWeatherMap

Hi / Lo: 81° / 72°
Wind: 8 mph
Precip: No precip

WeatherAPI

Hi / Lo: 82° / 62°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: No precip

Visual Crossing

Hi / Lo: 79° / 59°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: Rain

Tomorrow.io

Hi / Lo: 81° / 63°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: No precip

Google Weather

Hi / Lo: 80° / 60°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: Rain