53 days on the record

Right Ray / Wrong Ray | Jefferson

Name: Jefferson, NC forecast accuracy scores
Creator: Dave's Sweater
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every forecast for Jefferson is a claim about tomorrow. This board grades each one we track against what the sky actually did, on the same rubric as Boone. Jefferson stands alone here: no blended average, no borrowed scores.

How Ray did ↓Jefferson's forecast

Jefferson Scoreboard

Every forecaster we track for Jefferson, ranked by average. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (marked ours) is graded right in the mix.

			Record
Dave's Sweater Indexours	96.0	46	46R - 0M - 0W
Visual Crossing	94.8	44	44R - 0M - 0W
Google	94.7	44	43R - 1M - 0W
MET Norway	94.5	46	44R - 1M - 1W
Tomorrow.io	91.6	44	44R - 0M - 0W
Open-Meteo	89.4	46	43R - 3M - 0W
OpenWeather	85.4	43	36R - 5M - 2W
WeatherAPI	84.2	44	39R - 3M - 2W
National Weather Service	81.6	46	37R - 8M - 1W
Ray's Weather	64.8	53	2R - 38M - 13W

Dave's Sweater Indexours96.0
46R - 0M - 0W | 46 days
Visual Crossing94.8
44R - 0M - 0W | 44 days
Google94.7
43R - 1M - 0W | 44 days
MET Norway94.5
44R - 1M - 1W | 46 days
Tomorrow.io91.6
44R - 0M - 0W | 44 days
Open-Meteo89.4
43R - 3M - 0W | 46 days
OpenWeather85.4
36R - 5M - 2W | 43 days
WeatherAPI84.2
39R - 3M - 2W | 44 days
National Weather Service81.6
37R - 8M - 1W | 46 days
Ray's Weather64.8
2R - 38M - 13W | 53 days

R: Right, 75+
M: Meh, 60 to 74
W: Wrong, under 60
Trend: 7-day rolling average

Latest scored day | September 9, 2026

Jefferson's forecasts, graded against what the sky actually did. The math is under each score.

What actually happened

Hi: 77.5° / Lo: 56.9° | Wind: 7.6 mph | Rain: 0.059"

Moderate drizzle

Visual Crossingday's bestFree

100.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

76.7° / 57.1°

Wind

5.5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.8°

76.7° → 77.5°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.2°

57.1° → 56.9°

30/30

Wind | ±2.1 mph

5.5 mph → 7.6 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.05"

0.01" → 0.06"

20/20

GoogleFree

100.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.5° / 57.1°

Wind

5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1°

78.5° → 77.5°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.2°

57.1° → 56.9°

30/30

Wind | ±2.6 mph

5 mph → 7.6 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.06"

0" → 0.06"

20/20

MET NorwayFree

97.6/100

Predicted hi / lo

79.2° / 55.8°

Wind

7.6 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.7°

79.2° → 77.5°

27.9/30

Low temp | ±1.1°

55.8° → 56.9°

29.7/30

Wind | ±0 mph

7.6 mph → 7.6 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.05"

0.01" → 0.06"

20/20

Tomorrow.ioFree

95.1/100

Predicted hi / lo

78.8° / 57.2°

Wind

6.9 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.3°

78.8° → 77.5°

29.1/30

Low temp | ±0.3°

57.2° → 56.9°

30/30

Wind | ±0.7 mph

6.9 mph → 7.6 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.06"

0" → 0.06"

16/20

Open-MeteoFree

93.3/100

Predicted hi / lo

79.4° / 57.5°

Wind

7.4 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.9°

79.4° → 77.5°

27.3/30

Low temp | ±0.6°

57.5° → 56.9°

30/30

Wind | ±0.2 mph

7.4 mph → 7.6 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.06"

0" → 0.06"

16/20

OpenWeatherFree

83.1/100

Predicted hi / lo

73.7° / 59.6°

Wind

2.9 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±3.8°

73.7° → 77.5°

21.6/30

Low temp | ±2.7°

59.6° → 56.9°

24.9/30

Wind | ±4.7 mph

2.9 mph → 7.6 mph

16.6/20

Precip | ±0.05"

0.01" → 0.06"

20/20

National Weather ServiceFree

81.0/100

Predicted hi / lo

79° / 60°

Wind

1 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.5°

79° → 77.5°

28.5/30

Low temp | ±3.1°

60° → 56.9°

23.7/30

Wind | ±6.6 mph

1 mph → 7.6 mph

12.8/20

Precip | ±0.06"

0" → 0.06"

16/20

WeatherAPIFree

79.5/100

Predicted hi / lo

84° / 56.3°

Wind

4.9 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±6.5°

84° → 77.5°

13.5/30

Low temp | ±0.6°

56.3° → 56.9°

30/30

Wind | ±2.7 mph

4.9 mph → 7.6 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0.06"

0" → 0.06"

16/20

Ray's Weatherday's worstPaid

65.2/100

Predicted hi / lo

79° / 61°

Wind

—

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.5°

79° → 77.5°

28.5/30

Low temp | ±4.1°

61° → 56.9°

20.7/30

Wind | not published

— → 7.6 mph

—

Precip | ±0.06"

0" → 0.06"

16/20

Each forecast is scored out of 100 across four fields, by closeness to the actual recorded conditions. Those fields are high temp (30), low temp (30), wind (20, scored as a range when the source gives one) and precipitation (20, form and amount graded together, snow-aware). Same rubric for every town.

Ray's Weather publishes a per-town high, low and sky icon, so his town boards are graded on those. The icon is read as his precipitation call (a dry icon scores as a no-rain forecast, a rain or storm icon as rain). His wind text is one identical regional string across every town, so wind stays an honest forfeit here rather than a stamped guess. See the methodology for the icon mapping.

Full methodology | Boone's board

What they're predicting for Jefferson

Here's what each forecast says for Thursday, September 10: Logged before the actuals exist. Come back once the day's in to see who was right.

Source	High	Low	Wind	Precip
Open-Meteo	80°	63°	15 mph	No precip
Ray's Weather	82°	62°	—	No precip
NWS	81°	62°	9 mph	No precip
Met.no	81°	73°	14 mph	No precip
OpenWeatherMap	82°	71°	10 mph	No precip
WeatherAPI	84°	61°	11 mph	No precip
Visual Crossing	79°	63°	21 mph	Rain
Tomorrow.io	80°	63°	17 mph	No precip
Google Weather	81°	64°	13 mph	Rain

Open-Meteo

Hi / Lo: 80° / 63°
Wind: 15 mph
Precip: No precip

Ray's Weather

Hi / Lo: 82° / 62°
Wind: —
Precip: No precip

NWS

Hi / Lo: 81° / 62°
Wind: 9 mph
Precip: No precip

Met.no

Hi / Lo: 81° / 73°
Wind: 14 mph
Precip: No precip

OpenWeatherMap

Hi / Lo: 82° / 71°
Wind: 10 mph
Precip: No precip

WeatherAPI

Hi / Lo: 84° / 61°
Wind: 11 mph
Precip: No precip

Visual Crossing

Hi / Lo: 79° / 63°
Wind: 21 mph
Precip: Rain

Tomorrow.io

Hi / Lo: 80° / 63°
Wind: 17 mph
Precip: No precip

Google Weather

Hi / Lo: 81° / 64°
Wind: 13 mph
Precip: Rain