99 days on the record

Right Ray / Wrong Ray | Jefferson

Name: Jefferson, NC forecast accuracy scores
Creator: Dave's Sweater
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every forecast for Jefferson is a claim about tomorrow. This board grades each one we track against what the sky actually did, on the same rubric as Boone. Jefferson stands alone here: no blended average, no borrowed scores.

How Ray did ↓Jefferson's forecast

Jefferson Scoreboard

Every forecaster we track for Jefferson, ranked by average. Our own Dave's Sweater Index (marked ours) is graded right in the mix.

			Record
Dave's Sweater Indexours	96.6	92	92R - 0M - 0W
MET Norway	94.4	92	88R - 3M - 1W
Visual Crossing	94.3	90	90R - 0M - 0W
Google	94.2	90	88R - 2M - 0W
Tomorrow.io	92.5	90	89R - 1M - 0W
Open-Meteo	90.4	92	86R - 6M - 0W
OpenWeather	87.7	89	80R - 7M - 2W
WeatherAPI	86.0	90	80R - 7M - 3W
National Weather Service	83.3	92	77R - 14M - 1W
Ray's Weather	65.6	99	10R - 68M - 21W

Dave's Sweater Indexours96.6
92R - 0M - 0W | 92 days
MET Norway94.4
88R - 3M - 1W | 92 days
Visual Crossing94.3
90R - 0M - 0W | 90 days
Google94.2
88R - 2M - 0W | 90 days
Tomorrow.io92.5
89R - 1M - 0W | 90 days
Open-Meteo90.4
86R - 6M - 0W | 92 days
OpenWeather87.7
80R - 7M - 2W | 89 days
WeatherAPI86.0
80R - 7M - 3W | 90 days
National Weather Service83.3
77R - 14M - 1W | 92 days
Ray's Weather65.6
10R - 68M - 21W | 99 days

R: Right, 75+
M: Meh, 60 to 74
W: Wrong, under 60
Trend: 7-day rolling average

Latest scored day | October 25, 2026

Jefferson's forecasts, graded against what the sky actually did. The math is under each score.

What actually happened

Hi: 56.9° / Lo: 37.7° | Wind: 4.7 mph | Rain: 0"

Overcast

Visual Crossingday's bestFree

99.7/100

Predicted hi / lo

57.1° / 38.8°

Wind

6 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.2°

57.1° → 56.9°

30/30

Low temp | ±1.1°

38.8° → 37.7°

29.7/30

Wind | ±1.3 mph

6 mph → 4.7 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Open-MeteoFree

99.4/100

Predicted hi / lo

56.8° / 36.7°

Wind

8 mph

Rain

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.1°

56.8° → 56.9°

30/30

Low temp | ±1°

36.7° → 37.7°

30/30

Wind | ±3.3 mph

8 mph → 4.7 mph

19.4/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Tomorrow.ioFree

99.4/100

Predicted hi / lo

55.9° / 37.9°

Wind

8 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1°

55.9° → 56.9°

30/30

Low temp | ±0.2°

37.9° → 37.7°

30/30

Wind | ±3.3 mph

8 mph → 4.7 mph

19.4/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

GoogleFree

97.6/100

Predicted hi / lo

58.5° / 38.9°

Wind

6 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.6°

58.5° → 56.9°

28.2/30

Low temp | ±1.2°

38.9° → 37.7°

29.4/30

Wind | ±1.3 mph

6 mph → 4.7 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

MET NorwayFree

95.8/100

Predicted hi / lo

55.6° / 35.6°

Wind

6.3 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±1.3°

55.6° → 56.9°

29.1/30

Low temp | ±2.1°

35.6° → 37.7°

26.7/30

Wind | ±1.6 mph

6.3 mph → 4.7 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

National Weather ServiceFree

93.7/100

Predicted hi / lo

60° / 37°

Wind

5 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±3.1°

60° → 56.9°

23.7/30

Low temp | ±0.7°

37° → 37.7°

30/30

Wind | ±0.3 mph

5 mph → 4.7 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

WeatherAPIFree

89.2/100

Predicted hi / lo

59° / 34.2°

Wind

5.4 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±2.1°

59° → 56.9°

26.7/30

Low temp | ±3.5°

34.2° → 37.7°

22.5/30

Wind | ±0.7 mph

5.4 mph → 4.7 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

OpenWeatherFree

87.4/100

Predicted hi / lo

56.2° / 32.5°

Wind

5.3 mph

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±0.7°

56.2° → 56.9°

30/30

Low temp | ±5.2°

32.5° → 37.7°

17.4/30

Wind | ±0.6 mph

5.3 mph → 4.7 mph

20/20

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Ray's Weatherday's worstPaid

62.6/100

Predicted hi / lo

61° / 34°

Wind

—

Rain

—

Show the math ↓

Field

Predicted → actual

Pts

High temp | ±4.1°

61° → 56.9°

20.7/30

Low temp | ±3.7°

34° → 37.7°

21.9/30

Wind | not published

— → 4.7 mph

—

Precip | ±0"

0" → 0"

20/20

Each forecast is scored out of 100 across four fields, by closeness to the actual recorded conditions. Those fields are high temp (30), low temp (30), wind (20, scored as a range when the source gives one) and precipitation (20, form and amount graded together, snow-aware). Same rubric for every town.

Ray's Weather publishes a per-town high, low and sky icon, so his town boards are graded on those. The icon is read as his precipitation call (a dry icon scores as a no-rain forecast, a rain or storm icon as rain). His wind text is one identical regional string across every town, so wind stays an honest forfeit here rather than a stamped guess. See the methodology for the icon mapping.

Full methodology | Boone's board

What they're predicting for Jefferson

Here's what each forecast says for Monday, October 26: Logged before the actuals exist. Come back once the day's in to see who was right.

Source	High	Low	Wind	Precip
Open-Meteo	67°	38°	7 mph	No precip
Ray's Weather	65°	37°	—	No precip
NWS	67°	42°	2 mph	No precip
Met.no	65°	51°	4 mph	No precip
OpenWeatherMap	64°	60°	2 mph	No precip
WeatherAPI	66°	37°	5 mph	No precip
Visual Crossing	65°	32°	5 mph	No precip
Tomorrow.io	66°	37°	5 mph	No precip
Google Weather	66°	36°	6 mph	Rain

Open-Meteo

Hi / Lo: 67° / 38°
Wind: 7 mph
Precip: No precip

Ray's Weather

Hi / Lo: 65° / 37°
Wind: —
Precip: No precip

NWS

Hi / Lo: 67° / 42°
Wind: 2 mph
Precip: No precip

Met.no

Hi / Lo: 65° / 51°
Wind: 4 mph
Precip: No precip

OpenWeatherMap

Hi / Lo: 64° / 60°
Wind: 2 mph
Precip: No precip

WeatherAPI

Hi / Lo: 66° / 37°
Wind: 5 mph
Precip: No precip

Visual Crossing

Hi / Lo: 65° / 32°
Wind: 5 mph
Precip: No precip

Tomorrow.io

Hi / Lo: 66° / 37°
Wind: 5 mph
Precip: No precip

Google Weather

Hi / Lo: 66° / 36°
Wind: 6 mph
Precip: Rain